Post Assad Syria: What Could Come Next?

Syria witnessed a sudden and unexpected collapse of the Assad regime after a rapid offensive led by the successor of Jabhat al-Nusra and other armed Syrian groups. These unprecedented events highlight the future of governance in Syria after decades of rule by the Assad family and the potential repercussions for Lebanon, with regional and international interests at play. 

December 8, 2024, will mark the end of the Bashar al-Assad era, following an offensive that toppled him in less than two weeks.  

Led by Hayat Tahrir Ash-Sham (Organization for Liberating Syria) in short HTS, the successor of Jabhat al-Nusra, a rapid military campaign named "Deterrence of Aggression" was launched in Northern Syria. HTS, which was once affiliated with al-Qaeda, began its activities in 2012 as a militant rebel group fighting against the al-Assad regime and later played a significant role in the years-long Syrian war.  

Bashar al-Assad most likely fled the country on December 8, 2024, following the sudden and total collapse of the Syrian army. This led to the overthrow of the Ba’ath regime after 61 years of rule. HTS and other factions advanced into Damascus, announcing the regime's fall. Celebrations are still ongoing in Syria and in countries hosting Syrians who fled during the past 13 years of the regime's crimes.

The group HTS, backed by Turkey and other factions, had been rearming and preparing for such a move, though the timing was not publicly anticipated. The weakness of Assad’s regime backers created an opportunity to be seized: Russia was preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, Hezbollah was engaged in a full-scale war with Israel, and Iran was indirectly affected by these developments. While Iran and Hezbollah initially showed support for al-Assad during the first week of the HTS offensive, the regime ultimately could not withstand the assault for reasons that remain unclear, just as the future of Syria post-Assad.

With his "rebranding" as a more moderate and tolerant leader, al-Golani seeks to break away from his history as a proponent of Islamic rule. He and HTS designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the United States in 2018, are reportedly under reconsideration for removal from the U.S. terrorist list—an outcome that could significantly impact their role in Syria’s future.

Al-Golani announced that HTS is merely one part of the ongoing dialogue and could potentially dissolve. However, this remains uncertain and will likely not become apparent until events of the transitional phase unfold in the coming months. Referring to his real name, Ahmad al-Sharaa, al-Golani has continued efforts to reshape his image as a key figure in Syria’s new phase, distancing himself from his past ties to al-Qaeda since 2003 and his detention by the U.S. in Iraq during the formation of the Islamic State of Iraq.

All these events that rapidly unfolded raised concerns and anticipated hope of a change that would make the Syrian people come together after a devastating rule and war.

The Aftermath

Attention is now focused on the future of post-Assad Syria and the shape of the country’s new political governance. Chaos often follows such events, particularly given the sudden and unexpected collapse of the regime. On the regional level, a series of intense developments is still unfolding, including the Israeli war on Gaza, the large-scale war that struck Lebanon, and the assassination of most of Hezbollah’s military leadership, including its Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah. HTS capitalized on the weakness that struck Hezbollah. This group played a significant role in the Syrian conflict by defending Assad’s regime through military campaigns in a war that claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of Syrians. 

The transitional phase that has begun is often the most critical, as it carries uncertainty about the future. This phase could steer Syria toward a better path or, if mishandled, push it backward. The swift decision by the leader of the General Command of the Syrian Revolution, al-Sharaa, to appoint the head of the transitional government (Mohammed al-Bashir^[1]) less than two days after the regime’s collapse raises questions about the direction Syria will take, especially if HTS ends up shaping the country’s governance. The following steps are being anticipated with anxiety and urgency, as they will significantly impact Syria, the region, and the international community. 

Transitional justice is a crucial step for Syria to heal from the legacy of the Assad regime and to lay the foundation for a renewed Syrian society after 53 years of rule by Hafez and Bashar al-Assad. According to the UN, transitional justice encompasses all societal processes to address past abuses, promote accountability, and achieve reconciliation. Historical examples, such as Iraq, provide some context, as it also saw the overthrow of a Ba’athist regime. However, a complete comparison between the two cases is limited, as Iraq’s regime was toppled through direct military intervention by American forces, which significantly influenced the country’s subsequent trajectory.

Syria’s situation is particularly complex due to the diverse composition of its society and the challenges of ensuring accountability. If lessons are to be drawn from other examples, such as Iraq, Tunisia, South Africa, and Algeria, the successes and failures of these efforts must be carefully analyzed. Practically speaking, the chaos within Syrian governmental institutions in the first few days presents additional challenges. There are concerns about the failure to properly document past violations, safeguard potentially secret or sensitive security information, and archive critical governmental and civilian records.

Building a state free from the remnants of Ba’ath rule is critical, especially given the regional (Turkey, Iran, Qatar, and Israel) and international (American and British) interests in Syria. The failure to establish a strong army would hinder any future vision for the country. Israel has undoubtedly played a significant role in this context. It announced its aerial superiority over Syria and claimed to have destroyed over 85% of Syria’s anti-aircraft systems and 80% of its military infrastructure in what it described as a "historic campaign" against Syria. This campaign capitalized on the chaos that engulfed the country following the regime's collapse.

Israel swiftly advanced, crossing the buffer zone and taking control of the Golan Heights after Prime Minister Netanyahu declared the cancellation of the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement between Israel and Syria. The Israeli defense minister indicates that the Israeli army plans to remain in the newly established "buffer zone" during the winter months.

The situation in northern Syria is not better. Turkey, which supported the initial offensive, took advantage of the regime’s fall and launched another offensive against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a U.S.-backed Kurdish coalition leading the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. Turkey has stated that it is determined to continue its operation in the region until the Kurdish groups within the SDF disarm or leave the area.

Fears of the people

During the first days of the HTS (and its allies) offensive, the rapid advance of opposition groups into Aleppo and then Hama sparked fears about the potential targeting of Syrian cities with religious minorities, particularly those with an Alawite background (the sect to which al-Assad belongs). Concerns also arose about possible reprisals against individuals affiliated with the previous regime, including soldiers and supporters. However, these fears were significantly alleviated after assurances from HTS and its leader, al-Golani, who stated that only a few isolated violations had occurred and were promptly addressed. 

Meanwhile, recent events in Idlib —controlled by HTS and al-Golani— have added another layer to the already complex situation. Demonstrations and protests erupted in the city, with residents opposing HTS rule and demanding the release of prisoners held in its prisons following reports of torture and abuse. These developments have raised alarms in Idlib and across all Syrian regions that could fall under similar governance in what remains an uncertain, though plausible, future.

Despite the uncertainty and rising concerns, many Syrian groups that initially emerged during the start of the revolution are now attempting to reorganize. They hope to play a role in shaping the future of their country rather than allowing it to be defined solely by an exclusive role, while the memory of the long dictatorship will not quickly fade away.

^[1] The governor of the Syrian Salvation Government in Idlib province since the beginning of 2024 after two years of serving as the head of development and humanitarian affairs